From time to time, NBA.com’s writers will share their takes on the biggest storylines and trends around the league.
What has surprised you the most through the first two games of the NBA Finals?
Steve Aschburner
Simplistic as this sounds, I’m surprised that the Spurs didn’t put their foot down – specifically, Victor Wembanyama’s rather gargantuan size-20.5 sneaker – in Game 2 Friday night. San Antonio has had a pattern of a) encountering a little adversity early in its playoff series, but b) responding pretty quickly to snuff the threats and move on. That resilience/resolve was enough to convince me that we’d all be heading to New York with a 1-1 series, a return to San Antonio for Game 5 assured and likely another return for a Finals that would go the distance.
Now? None of that is a given. Wembanyama and his teammates started fine Friday but finished poorly. They have lost late leads in both games so far. The Knicks’ confidence is dialed up to 11 and, if they don’t win one or both at Madison Square Garden in the coming days – as giddy as that city is – it will seem kind of cruel.
From there, history and trends could carry this home: Teams that win the first two games of a Finals have won the championship 86.5% of the time (32-5). Teams that win the first two games on the road are unbeaten (2-0). And if that sample size is too small to trust, Finals teams that take a 3-1 series lead have a compelling 97.4% success rate (37-1).
Brian Martin
If anyone had told me that through two games of the NBA Finals, Jalen Brunson would be shooting 33.9% (19-for-56) overall and 23.5% (4-for-17) from 3-point range and have a negative point differential (-4), I would have guessed the Knicks were trailing 0-2 rather than leading 2-0 as the series shifts to New York.
How this has happened brings me to my second surprise: Karl-Anthony Towns outplaying Victor Wembanyama. Through two games, Towns is averaging 19.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and four assists on incredible efficiency (55.6% FG, 42.9% 3P, 100% FT), leading all players in the series in plus/minus (+25). And he’s doing it against the reigning Kia Defensive Player of the Year.
When defending Wemby, Towns has held the superstar to 20 total points on 36.8% (7-for-19) shooting over 16:01 of matchup time, forcing as many turnovers as made baskets (seven each). Towns has only committed four shooting fouls against Wemby. KAT has a history of getting into foul trouble, so being able to successfully defend Wemby while limiting his fouls has been huge.
Flip the floor, and the success continues. In 11:54 of matchup time with Wemby as the primary defender, Towns has scored 16 points on 58.3% (7-for-12) shooting, including 50% (2-for-4) from deep against Wembanyama. Towns also has three assists against two turnovers while being guarded by Wemby, who has only blocked one of Towns’ shots so far in the series.
If the Spurs are going to get back into this series, this matchup needs to turn in their favor. They also have to hope Brunson doesn’t get back to his normal efficiency — he entered the Finals shooting 48.6% from the field and 35.2% from beyond the arc.
Shaun Powell
Biggest surprise is the minimal impact made by Keldon Johnson, the NBA’s 2026 Kia Sixth Man Award winner. Actually, Johnson’s performance has been mild throughout much of the playoffs, with the exception of a few stretches in the Western Conference Finals vs. Oklahoma City. Other than Dylan Harper, the Spurs’ bench is producing efforts that are inconsistent at best against the Knicks. For example, whenever Victor Wembanyama sits, backup center Luke Kornet is being targeted by the Knicks; he has one point and four rebounds in the two games and is forcing Wemby back on the floor. But it is Johnson and his six points and four rebounds combined through two games — after averaging 13 and 5 during the season — that is most troublesome.
John Schuhmann
Jeff Zillgitt
Under the umbrella of “I’m stunned the Knicks have a 2-0 series lead in the NBA Finals,” I’m surprised at San Antonio’s inability to generate consistent offense and produce when necessary. Yes, the Knicks have been a great defensive team in the playoffs, so credit to them. But the Oklahoma City Thunder were also great defensively, and the Spurs found a way in the Western Conference Finals. San Antonio has been unable to do that in the Finals. They were better offensively in Game 2 – but not good enough to win (eight missed free throws and regrettable Victor Wembanyama turnover didn’t help), and they haven’t been able to execute in crucial late-game minutes. Wembanyama had 29 points in Game 2, but 22 came in the second half after attempting just four shots in the first half. That’s not the sustainable offense that helped the Spurs reach the Finals. This also is the first time in the playoffs where it looks like the Spurs’ youth is causing issues – the Knicks’ veterans have played through their mistakes while the shellshocked Spurs seemed mired in theirs on this stage.
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