Keaton Wagler’s rise from overlooked prospect to projected lottery pick

Keaton Wagler won Big Ten Freshman after averaging 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists during the 2025-26 season at Illinois.

Keaton Wagler stepped onto campus in Champaign, Illinois last July and met his teammates for the first time. There weren’t any five-on-five full practices yet for the Illini but there were sparks and flashes of what the young freshman guard would bring to the squad in the upcoming season through various group workouts.

“When he first started practicing in the summer, me and Kylan (Boswell) just looked at each other and were like, ‘ok he’s going to help us right away and take the ball pressure off the two of us,’” teammate Andre Stojaković said. “I don’t think he knew how good he was yet and we definitely didn’t know the type of season he would have at that time.” 

Wagler grew up in Shawnee, Kansas. Basketball was always present in his life. Both of his parents played at Hutchinson Community College and he grew up loving the game. Once Wagler hit high school, he helped lead his team to two 6A state championships and was named the Kansas Gatorade Player of the Year his senior year in high school. Wagler wasn’t a five-star recruit like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer. In fact, he wasn’t even ranked in high school.

Illinois assistant coach Tyler Underwood was the main recruiter and leaned into his ties to the Kansas City-area and AAU connections. Wagler didn’t play grassroots basketball on a main sneaker circuit (Nike EYBL, adidas 3SSB, Under Armour Association) and flew under the radar as a national recruit. 

“My journey has been a lot different than other players,” Wagler said. “I didn’t really get recruited by a ton of schools and I didn’t play on a big AAU circuit either. We still played against really good teams and there would be a lot of coaches there but I still wasn’t getting highly recruited at all. It was a lot of mid-major programs that were on me hard and then Illinois came in late. Once my parents and I took that visit and I met with the coaching staff, I knew that was the place for me.” 

Illinois struck gold with Wagler and found their diamond in the rough. In a historic freshman class, Wagler emerged as one of the top players in college basketball and stayed consistent throughout the year.

There were six freshmen who posted 40-plus points throughout the season. Three of them did it on the same night on January 24. BYU’s Dybantsa scored 43 points at home against Utah, Houston guard Kingston Flemings dropped 42 on the road at Texas Tech and Wagler marched into Mackey Arena and put up 46 points (9-for-11 from three) against a tough Purdue team. That game was the turning point that solidified him as a projected top-10 pick. 

“That was a crazy game,” Wagler said with a smile. “I’ve just approached every game this season with the mentality of whatever it takes to win. Their defense was throwing everything at me and if they were switching with the big, I was looking to attack and if my defender went under the screen, I was letting it fly and that’s what happened.” 

Wagler helped lead the Illini to the Final Four. The way Illinois plays in space and uses their bigs as perimeter threats is very similar to how the NBA game is played. As the season progressed, he played more possessions on the ball but his impact was felt on both ends of the court.

“I saw it every day in practice,” Stojaković said. “Just his discipline and the way he approaches the game. He’s a two-way player who impacts winning. There was a stretch where both Kylan and I were out with injuries and he stepped up big time. Just having that extra piece on the perimeter whether he’s on or off the ball really helped us this season.” 

Wagler earned First Team All-Big Ten honors and averaged 17.9 points, 4.2 assists and shot 40 percent from 3-point range on seven attempts per game. He led Illinois in points, assists and steals and started every game he played in. Wagler’s storybook season ended with a run to the Final Four where he scored 20-plus points in his final two games. He took some time to reflect on his freshman season at Illinois before declaring for the NBA Draft. 

“It definitely was a crazy year and is super unexpected, for sure,” Wagler said. “It just goes to show how hard I worked this year and attributed to the coaching staff and teammates for allowing me to showcase my talent and put a lot of trust in me.”

“In the middle of the season, you started to see my name come up in mock drafts and I still didn’t know if it was possible (to make the NBA). But then after the season when I finally decided to declare for the draft, that’s when I was like, ‘ok, this is really happening,’ and I went to work right away and it’s an amazing feeling to be here.” 

Wagler has worked out with the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Clippers and met with several other teams in the lottery in Chicago during the AWS NBA Draft Combine. He is still considered a bit of a raw prospect and will need to add some weight to his frame to match the physicality of the NBA. Wagler measured at 6-foot-6.5 without shoes and 188 pounds at the combine. 

“I’ve heard the doubt from people my whole life,” Wagler said. “You know, I’m not the most athletic, I’m not the fastest. I showed all last year that you don’t have to be the most athletic guy on the court to score the ball and be a really good player. I just find different ways to use my body and manipulate the defense, even though I’m not the strongest guy out there. Just being the aggressor on offense and using my change of pace, getting into the lane. That’s what separates me from the other guards in this class.”

Every player’s road to the NBA is different. Some are four-year college players, some are one-and-done, five-star recruits. NBA teams love a prospect who possesses size and length, versatility and upside and Wagler has all of those things. 

Wagler seemingly came from nowhere but proved he belonged first playing at the highest level in college basketball and now is one of the top NBA draft prospects. On Tuesday night, a dream of making the NBA that felt so far away just one year ago, will be realized at the Barclay’s Center in Brooklyn, giving hope and inspiration to other under recruited and overlooked players trying to find their own path to the NBA.