When you’re a title contender, you want to take care of business in the first round. And, up 2-1, the Boston Celtics would surely love to take control of their first round series with the Philadelphia 76ers by sweeping two games in Philadelphia.
The Sixers should be the desperate team, having lost home-court advantage on Friday night, unable to get any stops down the stretch of Game 3.
Here are three things to watch for in Game 4 on Sunday (7 ET, NBC/Peacock):
1. The return of Embiid?
Joel Embiid has missed the first three games of this series, recovering from an appendectomy in the last week of the season. But he wasn’t ruled out of Game 3 until about two hours before tip time, and he was listed as doubtful on the initial, Game 4 injury report.
The Sixers were just 11-10 with Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Embiid all in the lineup, including just 5-7 against playoff teams. But they were at their best in the regular season (plus-5.8 points per 100 possessions) with Embiid on the floor, with the bigger impact coming on offense.
Even when he’s limited, Embiid makes the Sixers a better team, and the on-off differential has been magnified in the playoffs. Over his seven postseasons, the Sixers have been an amazing 17.1 points per 100 possessions better with Embiid on the floor than they’ve been with him off the floor.
Sixers playoff efficiency, 2018-2024
| Embiid on/off | MIN | OffRtg | DefRtg | NetRtg | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On floor | 2,083 | 114.0 | 106.1 | +7.9 | +322 |
| Off floor | 1,153 | 103.3 | 112.5 | -9.2 | -218 |
| Diff. | 10.7 | -6.3 | 17.1 |
OffRtg = Team’s points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Team’s points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Team’s point differential per 100 possessions
The effect has almost always been there, even though those seven postseasons have come under three different head coaches, with varying supporting casts, and against a bevy of opponents.
Embiid played in two games against the Celtics this season, but both of those were in October. He was better (20 points on 6-for-13 shooting) in the Sixers’ home loss on Halloween than he was (four points, 1-for-9) in their opening-night win in Boston.
2. It’s a make-or-miss series
All three games in this series have gone the way of the better 3-point shooting team…
- The Sixers shot 19-for-39 (49%) from 3-point range in Game 2, but are 16-for-58 (28%) over their two losses.
Perimeter shooting means more for the Celtics, who have taken only 33% of their shots in the paint, what would be the second lowest rate for any team in any playoff series in the last 15 years. They were the jump-shootingest team in the regular season (41% of their shots came in the paint), and they’ve been even more so in the playoffs.
The Sixers took only 32 (36%) of their 90 shots in the paint in Game 2, when Maxey and VJ Edgecombe were a combined 11-for-22 from 3-point range. They dominated the paint in Games 1 and 3, but that success was trumped by the Celtics shooting from deep.
There’s obviously some luck in the small sample sizes you get in the playoffs, and in all three games, the winning team has shot better from 3-point range than expected, given the quality of their shots, with the biggest differential being that of the Sixers in Game 2. The losing team has shot worse than expected in all three games, with the biggest differential being that of the Sixers in Game 1.
Overall, the Sixers and Celtics been about even in the quality of their 3-point attempts, ranking right in the middle of the pack (eighth and ninth, respectively) in the playoffs.
The search for great shots will continue in Game 4, but sometimes, it’s just a make-or-miss league.
3. Can the Sixers get anything easy?
One way to be less reliant on jump shots is to get some easy baskets in transition. According to Synergy tracking, the Sixers averaged 25 transition points per game in their four regular-season meetings with the Celtics.
But they have just 44 transition points total (14.7 per game) in this series. Maxey and Edgecombe are two of the most explosive guards in the playoffs, and the account for 30 of the Sixers’ 44 transition points. But the Sixers haven’t been able to get them in the open court enough over these three games.
On issue is that the Celtics have committed just 12.3 turnovers per 100 possessions, the fourth lowest rate in the first round. And only 15 (38%) of their 40 total turnovers have been live balls, with the Sixers’ 5.5 steals per 100 possessions being the second lowest rate and down from 9.0 per 100 (seventh highest) in the regular season.
If the Celtics continue to take care of the ball at that level, it will be tough for the Sixers to get their guards out in the open floor.
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John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
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