Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off the most efficient season of his career, with a 66.5% true shooting mark.
The 2026-27 fantasy basketball season is nearly here, which means it’s time for the annual debate at the top of the draft board. Is this finally the year Victor Wembanyama unseats Nikola Jokić at 1.01? How early is too early for Cooper Flagg? And what do we make of Giannis Antetokounmpo in Miami and LeBron James in Philadelphia after a whirlwind offseason of superstar movement? To sort it all out, RotoWire’s Alex Barutha, Kirien Sprecher and Nick Whalen conducted a top-10 mock draft, breaking down each pick — and the toughest calls.
1: Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
Nick Whalen: The rise of Victor Wembanyama has made the 1.01 a real debate, but I still default to the player who reeled off five straight No. 1 overall finishes prior to last season. On a per-game basis, Jokić was as dominant as ever, but for the first time in his career, he missed significant time (17 games) – ending a decade-long streak of 12 or fewer absences. Even so, Jokić is only 31 years old, so durability is not a concern for me. The advantage Wembanyama provides in blocks is a major boost in category leagues, but Jokić’s all-around production and track record of staying on the court made him a relatively easy No. 1 pick for me.
2: Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
Kirien Sprecher: Wembanyama has a case for being the No. 1 pick in any fantasy draft, and he’s still not even close to reaching his peak. His jumper can be inconsistent, and he’s missed extended time in each of his first three seasons, but when on the court, we haven’t seen anything like him. Wemby blocks shots at a historic rate, makes threes in bunches while still being ultra efficient around the rim and punishes opposing teams at the free-throw line when they get too aggressive. As long as he meets the games threshold, Wemby will be a perennial MVP candidate, if not the odds-on favorite every year.
3: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Alex Barutha: After Jokić and Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander represents the clear No. 3 player in category-league fantasy. That said, points league players have plenty of reason to prefer Luka Dončić or Giannis Antetokounmpo. SGA is the back-to-back MVP and has no meaningful flaws in his fantasy profile that should stop him from being selected here in category formats. The 28-year-old has generally been healthy, and the team situation around him remains stable. Games played, minutes and usage will not be a concern. He’s also coming off the most efficient season of his career, with a 66.5% true shooting mark.
4: Luka Dončić, Lakers
Alex Barutha: Dončić was excellent in his first full season with the Lakers. He regained some efficiency, largely through shooting a career-high 82% at the rim. That was aided by the presence of both LeBron James and Austin Reaves, drawing defenses away from Dončić. Things are changing, though. LeBron signed with the Philadelphia 76ers, leaving Dončić and Reaves as the clear No. 1 and 2 options on the Lakers. Offseason additions like Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili and even rookie Cameron Carr will help create tough decisions for the defense. But the bottom line is that more will fall on Dončić’s shoulders than it did last season. For points leagues, that should be great. For category leagues, it could be a mixed bag.
5: Cade Cunningham, Pistons
Kirien Sprecher: Cunningham has transformed into one of the most consistent superstars in the league, and in turn, Detroit has emerged as a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons improved their one major weakness this offseason by adding competent shooting, which should lead to cleaner looks and more dimes for Cunningham, who averaged 17.3 potential assists per game in 2025-26. While some players taken after him may have a higher upside if things break right for them, Cunningham is the safest pick after the Big 4 are off the board, and there’s still room for him to grow if the Pistons’ offense takes the next step with their new supporting cast.
6: Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Nick Whalen: Investing a first-round pick in a player coming off a torn Achilles requires some faith, but at least we saw Tatum back on the floor to end last season. Even while shaking off rust, Tatum looked mostly like the elite player he’s been for the last decade, averaging 21.8 points, 10.0 boards, 5.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.9 threes in 32.6 minutes. Seemingly facing a decision between Tatum and Jaylen Brown this summer, the Celtics chose to reset around Tatum, which tells us there’s a high level of internal confidence about the health of his Achilles going forward. With Brown now in Philly, Tatum is as clear of a No. 1 option as he’s been at any point during his run with the Celtics.
7: Jalen Johnson, Hawks
Nick Whalen: I gave heavy consideration to Anthony Edwards, Scottie Barnes, Tyrese Maxey and – dare I say – even Cooper Flagg with this pick at No. 7. But I ultimately settled on Johnson, who finally stayed healthy and cruised to easily the best fantasy season of his career. Like Tatum, Johnson provides all-around production, offering elite rebounds and assists to go with a strong FG% and the potential for 2.0 stocks (steals + blocks) per game. Atlanta did beef up its depth this summer – adding Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Kingston Flemings – but this is still Johnson’s team, so I view last season’s production as sustainable. And keep in mind: Johnson is still only 24 years old and has leveled up in each of the last three seasons.
8: Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
Kirien Sprecher: Edwards’ scoring numbers have improved in each season, and he reached new heights in the field-goal department last year. The Timberwolves swapped Julius Randle for LaMelo Ball this offseason, which should speed up their offense and give Edwards easier looks than he’s used to. While his assist and rebound numbers have dropped slightly the past few years, Edwards’ scoring prowess, which is boosted by his incredible three-point shooting, makes him an easy first-round selection. Also, given current NBA standards, Edwards has been a beacon of availability, as last season was the first time he missed more than 10 regular-season games in his six-year career.
9: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Heat
Alex Barutha: In points leagues, Antetokounmpo could be in contention for a Top 3 pick. But he drops to the back half of the first round when considering category formats due to his poor free-throw shooting and lack of threes. The big story, though, is his move from Milwaukee to Miami. Last season for the struggling Bucks, Antetokounmpo appeared in just 36 games and played only 27.5 minutes. It’s safe to assume he’ll push back up to his usual workload of mid-to-low-30s minutes and retain his status as a No. 1 option. There could be some growing pains on offense for both Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo – especially as it relates to floor spacing. The throughline is that Antetokounmpo plays at an MVP-caliber level, but category league managers have to maneuver around his strengths and weaknesses adeptly.
10: Cooper Flagg, Mavericks
Alex Barutha: The 10th pick in fantasy basketball this season is one of the most difficult decisions I can remember in my time covering the game. It’s easy to forget now the struggles Flagg had early as a rookie, but there was a turning point in December. From December 1 onward, he ranked 30th per game in 8-category leagues and averaged 42.4 fantasy points – ridiculous stuff from an 18-year-old rookie. Arguably the only flaw in Flagg’s game is three-point shooting, hitting just 1.1 threes on 31.4% during that stretch. A bump even to 34% on some increased volume could create MVP-caliber numbers already in Year 2. It’s fair to point out Flagg’s usage could decrease due to the return of Kyrie Irving, though I’m partial to the argument that it could make him more efficient from easier looks. For huge portions of last season, defenses were entirely focused on shutting down Flagg, giving him little room to breathe. Even with that being the case, he was efficient on the whole and still managed to give significant effort on defense with 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks in his final 50 games. This is an easier decision to make/defend in points leagues, and there are plenty of other players after Flagg with Top 10 potential – such as Scottie Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and more.
Leave a Reply